|
Brent Harris Elliott Wave
Futures Market
Advisory Service
Daily Service Sample Article
(12/16/05)
ELLIOTT AG PAGE
SOYBEANS: [No Change] Although a
“sell-signal” has NOT been indicated yet in the Jan soybeans, prices have (so
far) remained BELOW the critical Nov 14 highs; at 6.02 3/4-6.05. Consequently,
my preferred wave-count continues to call for a decline to AT LEAST the
5.32-5.22 level. At this point, however, because a more plausible case can now
be made for a DOUBLE-THREE correction off the June top, there is a significantly
better chance that the next “leg-down” will mark a much more important bottom
(see ALTERNATE COUNT from the Oct quarterly). Anyhow, in the event Jan beans do
exceed the 6.02 3/4-6.05 level initially, then we’ll probably confirm a larger
rally to at least the 6.25 3/4-6.32 level. However, because I am currently
UNABLE to make a case for a MAJOR BOTTOM, even this development will probably
NOT be enough (by itself) to turn me to the Bull camp. Resistance for the Jan
soybeans is at 5.94-5.99 1/4, 6.02 3/4-6.05 and 6.10-6.17 1/4, with the
“pivotal” support at 5.82-5.78 ˝.
CORN: Since the (now nearby) March corn
will obviously exceed the key 1.95-
1.99 1/4 continuation chart resistance on Thursdays opening, it looks like a
completed decline from the July top will finally be confirmed, i.e., via the
continuation chart. In which case, at some point over the next couple of months,
a CYCLE-WAVE-IV advance should carry the nearby contract back to about the
2.29-2.32 level (?). However, because a completed decline from the July top will
NOT be indicated in March futures, UNLESS prices EITHER make a new rally high
AFTER Thurs Dec 15, OR critical resistance at 2.07 ˝-2.10 3/4 is penetrated,
traders should NOT exit shorts, yet. This key resistance level yields the
9.1%-14.58%-30.9%-retracement combination from the 1996, 2004 and 2005 highs, as
well as a 14.58%-retracement in March futures (2.10 3/4). Anyhow, IF this area
holds initially, then we should see a drop to AT LEAST the 1.97 ˝ level
near-term; if not 1.91 ˝-1.88 3/4. Near-term support is at 2.04 3/4-2.02 1/4,
with near-term resistance (after 2.07 ˝-2.10 3/4) at 2.14 1/4-2.15 1/4 and
2.19-2.21.
WHEAT: Given that the (now nearby) March
wheat closed right at the low-end of the key 3.22 3/4-3.26 1/4 long-term
resistance area Wed, a rather CRITICAL juncture is at hand. Note, that this key
area yields the 19.1%-30.9%-30.9%-38.2%-retracement combination from the 1996,
2003, 2004 and 2005 highs, as well as the 30.9%-retracement projection from the
Sept peak basis March futures. Anyhow, IF my preferred count is correct, and
this area holds, then we should see a 9th-wave decline to AT LEAST the 2.88-2.84
level, i.e., BEFORE a larger, primary wave-[2] bounce unfolds. However, IF the
March wheat EITHER trades ABOVE 3.28 intraday, OR a close over 3.26 1/4 occurs,
then we’ll have to conclude that wave-[2]-up has already started. In this event,
presumably within several weeks, we’ll be looking to re-enter short at EITHER
the 3.34 ˝-3.36 ˝ resistance area, OR 3.44-to-3.47 max! Near-term support for
March wheat is at 3.16-3.15 3/4, 3.09 ˝ and 3.03 1/4-2.99 ˝.
COTTON: Considering that the
intermediate-term pattern in cotton remains BEARISH, AND recent lows in BOTH the
Dec and March contracts also FAILED to reach their 46.25-45.69 and 50.20-49.82
support levels, respectively, it certainly looks like the current rally ought to
be SOLD. However, because my best resistance cluster at 55.22-55.70 is a
substantial distance ABOVE the closest resistance area, or 53.66-54.08, I guess
we’ll wait another day or two BEFORE giving a sell recommendation. Note, IF we
can get a completed, a-b-c, or DOUBLE-THREE within the next few days, then we’ll
hopefully be able to determine which resistance area to sell.
HOGS: Since the Dec hogs have now gone
off-the-board, the odds of a SHARP DECLINE in the Feb contract have probably
diminished significantly. However, our MINIMUM, upside objective at 68.05-68.70
is now also MUCH CLOSER, so the upside potential may NOT be worth the risk.
Note, while it is entirely possible that the Feb hogs will rally to the
70.85-71.25, or 73.65-73.77 resistance clusters BEFORE the long-term BEAR CYCLE
resumes, it will be possible to make a case for a completed rally...once Feb
hogs exceed the Dec 2 peak (+68.30). Near-term support for the Feb hogs is at
65.77-65.17 and 64.22-63.72 max!
ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR
SILVER: [No Change] Given that the drop in
silver reached the key 14.58%-retracement/ support projection from BOTH the 1993
and 2001 lows Wed, AND a 9.1%-depreciation from the Dec 12 peak, or 8.42-8.345
basis Dec and 8.51-8.435 in the March contract, it is certainly possible that a
STRONG UPTURN will begin immediately. However, because it looks like we still
need ONE MORE DECLINE, in order to finish an a-b-c pattern down, traders should
probably look at buying near my MAXIMUM SUPPORT LEVEL; at 8.275-8.175 basis
March. This area yields the 19.1%-retracement projection from the 1993/2001
lows, an 11.795%-depreciation, the 35-day moving average and the key 2X1 daily
GANN angle from the Aug bottom (now at 8.28). Anyhow, assuming this is just a
wave-[4] pullback, the next “leg-up” should at least re-test the 8.98-9.175
resistance area; if not EXTEND to my next higher objective; at 10.51-10.75.
Near-term resistance for March silver is now at 8.55, 8.635, 8.705 and 8.775.
STOCKS: [SEE NEW TRADES]
COFFEE: Since the long-term pattern in
coffee not only continues to look BULLISH, but I can’t even make a case for a
completed rally (of significance) off the Sept bottom, I’m at somewhat of a
loss-as to explaining Wednesdays sharp decline. Overall, however, Wed 93.50 low
did occur right at the upper-end of the long-term support, at 93.50-92.75. Thus,
as long as prices do NOT exceed this area, we will continue to focus our efforts
on the long-side. To that end, UNLESS a “5-wave” rally can develop on the
intraday chart, the best (near-term) interpretation will favor ONE MORE TEST of
the aforementioned support. Thus, I have no recommendation for re-entering the
long-side...yet. Near-term resistance for March coffee is now at 97.55-98.55 and
100.70-101.20.
COCOA: While the long-range pattern in
cocoa continues to indicate that the current rally will present a excellent
selling opportunity, Monday’s penetration of the 1461-1487 resistance area
suggest that a considerably larger, wave-(c) section up is probably unfolding.
Thus, once it becomes possible to label a completed, 5-or-9-wave pattern off the
Nov bottom, we’ll attempt to re-enter the short-side. The next closest area of
key resistance is at 1513-1519. However, there is a distinct possibility that
prices will reach FAR BETTER RESISTANCE; at 1554-1582. This area yields the
23.6%-50%-retracement combination from the 2003 and 2005 highs, as well as a
38.2%-retracement of the Mar-Nov decline basis Mar futures. Near-term support
for Mar cocoa is now at 1457, 1446 and 1436-1427.
OJ: Since the recent move to new rally
highs in Jan OJ has been followed by yet another new high, the overall pattern
continues to indicate that a HUGE, upward extension is probably unfolding. Note,
because wave-[1] up was 39.45-cents in length, and wave-[3] will likely be AT
LEAST 61.8%-to-76.4%-the length of wave-[1], the nearby contract could easily
rally to at least the 139.80/145.55 level(s), BEFORE we see another multi-week
set back. Of course, it’s always VERY RISKY trading during the “freeze season”.
So, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see IF any decent buying opportunities
develop. Near-term resistance for Jan OJ is at 127.30-130.35 and 137.10-139.80,
with the support now at 126.65-126.50, 124.10-123.85 and 120.00-119.60.
NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 12/16/05
CORN: Traders/Hedgers (50%) are short
2-March corn from 2.03 1/4 (+$6,787 w/rollover). Keep ALL STOPS at 2.11 1/4.
WHEAT: Traders/Hedgers (75%) added a short
March wheat at 3.23 3/4 (+$2,250 w/rollover). Keep ALL STOPS at 3.28 1/4.
SILVER: High Risk Traders (HRT) can buy
March silver at 8.285, using a stop at 8.055.
STOCKS: Traders can sell the March e-mini
S&P at 1294.75, using a stop at 1311.75.
|
